Tuesday, November 5, 2024

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  The presidential election is TODAY.

  
  


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  🗳️ When polls close in the battleground states:

  
  


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  Georgia: 7 pm (Trump +0.8)
  
  North Carolina: 7:30 pm (Trump +0.9)
  
  Michigan (most): 8 pm (Harris +1.0)
  
  Pennsylvania: 8 pm (Harris +0.2)
  
  Arizona: 9 pm (Trump +2.1)
  
  Michigan: 9 pm (Harris +1.0)
  
  Wisconsin: 9 pm (Harris +1.0)
  
  Nevada: 10 pm (Trump +0.3)

  
  


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  All times Eastern. Polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

  
  


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  Editor’s note: The 2020 election took nearly 90 hours after the final polls closed until Biden was declared president-elect. It probably won’t take that long this time: Near-complete results from Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina are expected on election night, along with most of Wisconsin’s results by Wednesday morning. Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada, meanwhile, will likely be counting ballots through Wednesday.

  
  


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  📈 Final Polling Vibes.

  
  


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  Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)
  
  Harris +1.2 points (FiveThirtyEight)
  
  Harris +1.0 points (Nate Silver)
  
  Harris +1.5 points (The Economist)
  
  Harris +0.1 points (RealClearPolitics)
  
  Harris +1.4 points (Split Ticket)

  
  


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  🔮 Final Forecasting Vibes.

  
  


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  Harris wins 50 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)
  
  Harris wins 50 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
  
  Harris wins 56 times out of 100. (The Economist)
  
  Harris wins 50 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
  
  Harris wins 53 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
  
  Trump wins 51 times out of 100. (270toWin)
  
  Trump wins 54 times out of 100. (The Hill)
  
  Harris wins 51 times out of 100. (Race to the White House)
  
  Harris wins 52 times out of 100. (Metaculus)
  
  Trump wins 58 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)

  
  


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  Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not the final result.

  
  

1/ More than 83 million Americans voted early in the first presidential election since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Polls show the presidential race between Harris and Trump to b...

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